I’d like to skip to the end of this book that we’re living through. I’ve felt this way since the 2016 election. And, every time I think we’ve gotten near the end of the “book”, somehow more chapters are added and we’re back somewhere in the middle. The latest chapter is the 2020 presidential primary. We’re all trying to get a peek at the end of the book. But the truth is, no one can see into the future no matter how hard they fret and stew.
A lot has been made of the fact that Bernie Sanders has won the first 3 contests of the democratic primary. People have him getting the nomination (some happily and some fearfully). But let’s take a step back. When someone on Facebook stated that Bill Clinton didn’t win any primaries until Georgia, that peaked my curiosity. In 1992, the primary schedule was quite different than it is today. There was an initial field of 10 candidates. Of those candidates, Bill Clinton didn’t win any contests until March 3 (and that was only Georgia). By this time, Jerry Brown had won 2 states, Tom Harkin had won 3 and Paul Tsongas had won 4 states. In fact, if you look at the states holding races on Super Tuesday 2020, you’d find that Clinton won only 7 of out those 15. In the Super Tuesday of 1992 (in which there were 11 contests), the big winner was Paul Tsongas. Also notable is that Clinton didn’t win Nevada either (which voted on March 8).
States in yellow were/are the Super Tuesday states of their time. Blue indicates the winner of each race.
Actual Democratic Primary and Caucus Schedule for 1992
Note that Idaho, Minnesota and Washington would later have primaries. Bill Clinton won all of these races.
Democratic Primary Schedule for 2020. (If the candidates of 1992 faced the same order of primaries and caucuses as the candidates of 2020)
Under the reasoning that people are using now, Clinton should have dropped out of the race because, given the number of states that he had won by February 23 (zero), he had no way of winning the nomination. Obviously, it is (and was) very early in the process and a lot can, and did, change. Super Tuesday 2020 (March 3) puts 19 states in play (almost twice the number in 1992). But Bill Clinton didn’t really pick up steam until March 7. And from April 5 until the end of the primary season, he won every race.
The plethora of news outlets, reporters and pundits are all angling for an angle. But I think they are getting too worked up. At this point, only 3 states have had a say. That is way too small a sample size to predict what will happen by June. There is still opportunity for plenty of people to express their choice through their vote. If you like Sanders, vote for Sanders. If you like someone else, even if they are 4th or 5th in the current delegate count – don’t count them out, who knows, they may rise to the top.
Perhaps it time to take a breath, stop with the panic attacks (at least as far as the primary goes) and be an active citizen. The last page of the book will get here when it gets here.
